San Juan Hut Route

Today's CAIC bulletin is about as clean as it gets for late April in the San Juans — Moderate danger at all elevations, zero identified avalanche problems. The snowpack is settling and consolidating after whatever the last cycle brought, and with no persistent slab, wind slab, or storm slab problems called out, you have wide terrain flexibility. The bulletin does note 'heightened conditions on specific terrain features,' which is standard language for this time of year — just do your usual evaluation of convex rolls and cross-loaded gullies, but don't let it dampen your confidence on the day.

Weather today is ideal: mostly sunny, highs around 40°F, light westerly winds at 10-15 mph. That's not enough wind to meaningfully load terrain, so wind slab isn't a factor. Freezing level will be sitting comfortably above your travel elevations overnight at 22°F, which keeps the snowpack from going isothermal overnight — you'll have a good freeze-thaw cycle working in your favor for Wednesday morning. The 33 inches of depth at your elevation band is workable for late-season touring.

Watch Wednesday closely. There's a 31% chance of snow showers during the day, but the real story is Thursday — 81% precip probability with snow showers through the night. That's a meaningful loading event. Depending on how much falls and how fast, you could be looking at fresh storm slab concerns by Thursday morning on steeper terrain. If you're mid-route Thursday, stick to mellow angles and give loaded lee aspects a wide berth until the new snow has had time to bond, which at these spring temperatures may happen faster than a midwinter storm — but don't assume it.

For logistics: make your biggest mileage push today and Wednesday before noon. The Tuesday-Wednesday window is long with nearly 14 hours of daylight — sunrise at 6:19 AM gives you an early start to catch firm morning snow on north aspects before solar warming softens things mid-afternoon. By early afternoon on sunny aspects, expect softening corn; plan your exposed south and west-facing descents for mid-morning. If Thursday's storm delivers significant snow, treat Friday morning as a conservative travel day and reassess before committing to steep terrain.