San Juan Hut Route

Avalanche conditions are about as clean as late-season gets. CAIC is running Low (1/5) at all elevation bands with no identified problems — no persistent slabs, no wind slabs, nothing. The bulletin notes to watch for isolated terrain features, which is standard boilerplate for this time of year. Treat it as background awareness, not a real concern on well-managed lines.

Snowpack at route elevations is workable at 31 inches. Late May in the San Juans means the snowpack is actively settling and consolidating with daily freeze-thaw cycles. The low-elevation SNOTEL stations (Annie Springs, McNeil Canyon) are already zeroed out, which just confirms what you'd expect — snow is on the upper terrain. The Long Lake station at 840 ft shows a falling trend, consistent with normal spring melt, not a stability concern.

Weather is the main variable to manage this trip. Today has a slight chance of snow showers this afternoon with 10-15 mph westerly winds, but nothing significant — 21% precip chance, so maybe a dusting. Friday night drops to 28°F which is a solid overnight refreeze. Saturday is your star day: sunny, 55°F, winds 5-15 mph WNW, essentially perfect touring conditions. Lock in your biggest objective for Saturday. Sunday introduces convective risk — 60°F high with a 25% chance of afternoon thunderstorms. On high-elevation ridge terrain, that's a real concern. Be off exposed terrain and headed toward lower ground by noon on Sunday.

With 14.5 hours of daylight and sunrise at 5:56 AM, you have tons of flexibility on timing. On Saturday, get moving early to skin in cold snow and catch the best surface before solar heating softens things by mid-morning at elevation. Sunday, treat noon as your hard turnaround for anything above treeline. Stream crossings are normal on all five gauges — no issues there.