Mt. Rainier – Disappointment Cleaver

The Winter Storm Warning through Friday morning is dumping 2+ feet of new snow with winds gusting to 41 mph, creating massive loading on an already unstable snowpack rated High danger at all elevations. What makes this particularly dangerous is the clean avalanche bulletin — no specific problems identified means the entire snowpack is suspect and widespread natural activity is likely. At 14,411 feet, you're looking at wind speeds potentially doubling to 80+ mph on the upper mountain with temperatures dropping to near zero factoring wind chill. The Disappointment Cleaver route traverses exposed avalanche terrain from Panorama Point through the upper mountain, and with High danger below treeline all the way to the summit, there's no safe elevation band to work with.

SNOTEL at Annie Springs shows 35 inches at 6,000 feet with falling trends, suggesting settlement, but the incoming storm negates any stability gains. The new loading combined with existing wind transport creates a dangerous setup for both storm slabs and wind slabs on the route's multiple aspect changes. The DC route's exposure to westerly winds means direct loading on the climbing route itself, not just cross-loading onto adjacent slopes.

Stream flow data from lower elevation gauges shows normal winter conditions, so approach access isn't an issue, but with only 11 hours 42 minutes of daylight and a multi-day weather window closing, timing becomes critical. The heavy snow continues through Friday night, meaning even if you waited out the initial storm, you'd be climbing through continued precipitation and wind.

Wait for this cycle to pass and the snowpack to settle. Monitor the Northwest Avalanche Center for when danger ratings drop to Considerable or below, particularly above treeline where the upper Cleaver becomes most exposed. A weather window with light winds and clear skies will be essential for both safety and route finding on the upper mountain.