Mt. Rainier – Disappointment Cleaver

The weather window is genuinely good. Wednesday looks like your summit day: sunny, surface winds 3-10 mph ENE, low temps overnight at 36°F. At Rainier's summit (~14,411 ft), expect winds in the 15-25 mph range using a 2x ridge multiplier — cold but workable. Thursday warms to 53°F at the surface with S winds picking up to 13 mph, which means summit winds potentially 25+ mph and afternoon softening on sun-exposed slopes. If you're not on the descent by early Thursday afternoon, you're dealing with deteriorating conditions on both fronts. Target a Tuesday night/Wednesday alpine start out of Camp Muir and plan to be through the Cleaver and descending by midday Wednesday.

No avalanche rating is currently posted for the West Slopes South zone — NWAC has not issued a bulletin, which means treat every slope above 30 degrees as an unknown quantity. The bulletin discussion specifically calls out watching for recent avalanches, cracking, and whumpfing. On the DC route, your main exposure is the Cowlitz Glacier approach, the Ingraham Flats, and the traverse below the Cleaver itself. If you see any of those instability signs, back off the slope and reassess. The absence of a rating is not a green light — it's a gap in information.

SNOTEL context: Annie Springs at 6,021 ft is showing only 10 inches of depth and 5.1 inches SWE with a stable trend, which tells you the lower approach is lean on snow. Long Lake at 840 ft shows 89 inches but a falling trend — spring melt is underway at lower elevations. The Paradise area (where Camp Muir sits at ~10,080 ft) will have a much deeper and more consolidated snowpack than these stations suggest, but expect variable and potentially icy conditions on the lower mountain before you hit stable alpine snow. Microspikes or early crampon transition may be warranted lower than usual.

With 14+ hours of daylight, you have plenty of margin for an alpine start. Leave Camp Muir by 1-2 AM Wednesday to summit midmorning and descend before the Thursday warming cycle degrades the snow surface and kicks up S winds. Stream crossings on approach are non-issues — all gauges at normal flows. No fire smoke to worry about. This is a solid window; execute the plan and stay sharp on the snowpack.