John Muir Trail

The weather window here is genuinely good. Today has a 30% chance of snow showers this afternoon as a weak system moves through, but it clears overnight and Wednesday through Thursday is sunny, calm, and mild — highs in the low 50s with winds 5-15 mph NW. Overnight lows dip to 28-32°F, so you're cold camping but nothing unusual for late April in the Sierra. That passing shower today could drop a dusting above 9,000 ft, but it won't accumulate meaningfully and won't affect crossing conditions.

Snowpack at elevation is real. The 33-inch reported depth and the Long Lake SNOTEL at 8,400 ft showing 89 inches of depth (38.2" SWE, trend falling) confirms substantial snow persists on the high route. Expect postholing on north aspects and shaded terrain, icy consolidated snow in the mornings, and soft slushy conditions by mid-afternoon on sun-exposed slopes. The falling SWE trend at Long Lake is melt-driven — temperatures are above freezing during the day — which means afternoon snow surfaces will be punchy. Move through exposed snowfields in the morning while surfaces are still firm.

Stream crossings are not a concern right now. All five gauges are within 79-116% of median with stable or falling trends — well below the threshold where crossings get sketchy. The overnight lows in the upper 20s will suppress snowmelt runoff, and daytime highs in the low 50s aren't going to spike flows significantly. Expect mildly elevated afternoon flows at creek crossings on Wednesday and Thursday, but nothing that should stop you. Cross in the morning if you have any doubt.

No fires within 50 miles, so air quality is clean. You've got 13 hours 40 minutes of daylight — sunrise at 6:03 AM — so there's no pressure on timing from a light standpoint. Get moving early to take advantage of firm snow, be off steep snow slopes before noon, and you've got a wide-open window to execute your itinerary. This is a solid late-April trip.