Four Pass Loop

The weather is the story this trip. Highs of 31-32°F across all four days with snow showers likely every single period — Thursday is at 88% precip probability and Thursday Night at 71%. Overnight lows hit 17-18°F. That's not a passing storm system, that's a sustained winter pattern through your entire trip window. At the four passes (West Maroon, Frigid Air, Trail Rider, Snowmass), you're at or above 12,500 ft with 15 mph westerly winds — that puts wind chill in the single digits on the exposed traverses. The biggest practical concern is navigation and pace. The Four Pass Loop in full winter conditions means postholing or booting through consolidated snowpack — Long Lake SNOTEL (which is a high-elevation analog station) is sitting at 89 inches depth, well into the snowpack even with a falling trend. Moving slower than summer pace between camps is the norm, and all four passes will have steep snow. If you're not carrying an ice axe and microspikes, get them — the north-facing approach and descent on Frigid Air Pass and the Snowmass Creek drainage in particular hold steep, icy snow well into May. Stream crossings are a non-issue. The five gauges in this region are all running 79-116% of median and stable — Snowmass Creek and Maroon Creek will be running but well within normal crossable range given the below-average temperatures keeping snowmelt in check. No fires within 50 miles, air quality is clean. Your 13h 44m of daylight is a genuine asset — use it. Start moving by 7 AM each day to summit passes before any afternoon weather develops. With snow showers forecast every day, plan to be at or below each pass by 1 PM. Camp in the trees when possible for wind protection; exposed ridgeline camps will be brutal at 17-20°F with wind. This trip goes — but pack for winter, not spring.